The "Trial of the Century" is reaching a fever pitch. As the independent commission continues its review of Manchester City’s 115 alleged breaches of Premier League financial rules, the potential fallout has become a terrifying reality for the Etihad faithful.
Speaking on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, renowned football finance expert Stefan Borson (a former financial advisor to City) and other leading analysts have suggested that if the club is found guilty of the most serious charges—specifically "systemic disguise of owner funding"—the punishment will be unprecedented.
The Financial Expert’s Verdict: Beyond Relegation?
According to experts, a simple fine or a minor 10-point deduction (similar to Everton or Nottingham Forest in previous seasons) is "off the table" for a case of this magnitude.
The 40-60 Point Range: Finance experts suggest that to reflect the "gravity and scale" of the alleged decade-long deception, a deduction in the region of 40 to 60 points would be the starting point.
The Relegation Reality: A 60-point deduction would almost certainly result in automatic relegation to the Championship, regardless of how many games Pep Guardiola’s side wins on the pitch.
The "Expulsion" Factor: Some legal experts argue that if the "dishonesty" charges are proven, the Premier League may have no choice but to expel the club from the league entirely, forcing them to apply for entry into the EFL.
Expert Quote: "If you prove the top-level charges—that City lied about their sponsorship contracts—you are talking about a penalty that must be terminal to their status as a Premier League club. 40 points would be the minimum."
The Verdict: While Manchester City continues to "strenuously deny" all charges and maintains they have "irrefutable evidence" of their innocence, the expert consensus is shifting. The talk is no longer about if there will be a punishment, but whether that punishment will effectively end City's dominance of the English game.