The probabilities below are derived from averaging the odds across several major international bookmakers.
Rank,Team,Average Decimal Odds (Approx.),Implied Probability,Key Takeaway
1.,🇲🇦 Morocco,3.75,26.7%,"The clear, consensus favorite due to home advantage and World Cup form."
2.,🇪🇬 Egypt,7.00,14.3%,Historical dominance and the presence of Salah make them the top challenger.
3.,🇩🇿 Algeria,7.15,14.0%,Technically strong squad and recent AFCON winners (2019).
4.,🇸🇳 Senegal,7.45,13.4%,"The defending 2021 champions with a physically imposing, star-studded squad."
5.,🇳🇬 Nigeria,10.90,9.2%,"Led by co-Golden Boot favorite Victor Osimhen; high attacking potential, but defensive questions remain."
6.,🇨🇮 Ivory Coast,12.50,8.0%,"A long-standing powerhouse, but their odds are depressed slightly due to recent inconsistency."
7.,🇲🇱 Mali,13.00,7.7%,"Seen as the leading true dark horse—strong, young, and technically gifted."
8.,🇹🇳 Tunisia,13.00,7.7%,Always resilient and tactically difficult to beat in tournament football.
9.🇨🇲 Cameroon,18.75,5.3%,"Despite the drama around Onana, they still possess quality, but the internal chaos lowers their probability."
📈 Analysis of the "Dark Horses" (Teams Ranked 5-7)
The real value in betting and the true excitement of AFCON often lie in the teams ranked just outside the top four.
Nigeria 🇳🇬 (9.2% Probability)
Nigeria's probability is directly tied to the form of Victor Osimhen. If the Napoli striker maintains his club form,
they could easily outperform their odds. However, their lower ranking reflects defensive vulnerabilities and a slight lack of midfield control compared to the top North African teams.
Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 (8.0% Probability)
The defending 2023 champions have a quality spine, including Sébastien Haller and Franck Kessié.
While they have the talent to reach the final, their journey to the previous AFCON title was patchy,
and the markets reflect that they are less predictably dominant than the top four.
Mali 🇲🇱 (7.7% Probability)
Mali is arguably the most promising outsider. They have a core group of players who have matured together and are technically excellent. Their recent results are strong, and they are positioned well to top their group and avoid some of the early powerhouses in the knockout stages, offering a high-reward opportunity.
Summary: The probabilities point to a Moroccan victory (26.7%), but the tournament is wide open, with the top four teams collectively holding a winning probability of over 68%.